Hurricane researchers at Colorado State University predict an extremely active Atlantic hurricane season in their pre-season forecast.
The forecast, released Thursday morning, calls for 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes. It’s an uptick from last year which saw 20 named storms, seven hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
Hurricane Idalia was the only Atlantic hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. last year. The powerful storm struck Florida’s Big Bend region as a Category 3 and moved through southeast Georgia and into South Carolina.
The storm brought strong wind, heavy rain and flooding to much of the Lowcountry and even spawned three tornadoes as it trekked through the state in late August.
The team at Colorado State University said record warm tropical and eastern subtropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures are a top factor in making their prediction.
Researchers say that when waters in the eastern and central tropical and subtropical Atlantic are much warmer than normal in the spring, it tends to force a weaker subtropical high and associated weaker winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic.
It often leads to continued well above-average water temperatures in the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season. “A very warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane’s fuel source is warm ocean water. In addition, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favour hurricanes,” forecasters wrote.
Another factor is developing La Niña which decreases upper-level westerly winds across the Caribbean into the tropical Atlantic. Forecasters say these decreased upper-level winds result in reduced vertical wind shear, favoring Atlantic hurricane formation and intensification.
Colorado State University researchers say the 2024 season shows similarities to 1878, 1926, 1998, 2010, and 2020.
“Our analog seasons were all very active Atlantic hurricane seasons,” said Phil Klotzbach, senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU and lead author of the report. “This highlights the somewhat lower levels of uncertainty that exist with this outlook relative to our typical early April outlook.”
The team will issue updates on its forecast on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6. Hurricane season in the Atlantic begins on June 1st and runs through the end of November.
